Gold gains as Fed rate cut expectations provide support

Gold prices climbed to a week’s high on Thursday, supported by expectations for an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve following soft inflation data, although an uptick in equities capped gains.

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Spot gold rose 0.5% to $1,340.13 per ounce, after touching its highest since June 7 at $1,344.60 earlier in the session.

U.S. gold futures settled up 0.5% at $1,343.70 an ounce.

“The initial move on higher prices was due to escalating trade tensions … Thereafter, concerns around recession or a slowing U.S. economy has helped push up rising expectations of a Fed interest rate cut in July,” said Suki Cooper, precious metals analyst at Standard Chartered Bank.

Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and weigh on the dollar, making gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies.

Fed policymakers are scheduled to meet on June 18-19, with financial markets pricing in at least two rate cuts by year-end, after tepid consumer price data on Wednesday and employment data were seen as further indications the U.S. economy may be losing steam.

“It (gold) found strong support around $1,320 earlier this week and has since burst higher with the previous peak around $1,350 in its view. A break of this could propel gold higher, although it will have to be matched with momentum,” Craig Erlam, senior market analyst with OANDA, said in a note.

“Risk appetite in the markets is likely to work against gold, but the dollar looking vulnerable is clearly supportive,” he wrote.

Wall Street stocks opened higher on Thursday, helped by gains in energy shares after suspected attacks on two tankers off the coast of Iran boosted oil prices.

Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose 0.5% to 759.70 tonnes on Wednesday from 756.18 tonnes on Tuesday.

Silver climbed 1.1% to $14.90 per ounce while platinum dipped 0.3% to $806.07.

Palladium jumped 2.6% to $1,442.51 per ounce after hitting a more than six-week high of $1,447.26 earlier in the session.

“Even though auto sales globally are slowing, we are seeing palladium demand rise amid tighter emission regulations around the world,” said Standard Chartered’s Cooper.

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Ed Moya

With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute fundamental analysis of geo-political events and monetary policies in the US, Europe, the Middle East and North Africa. Over the course of his career, he has worked with some of the world’s leading forex brokerages and research departments including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including BNN, CNBC, Fox Business, and Bloomberg. He is often quoted in leading print and online publications such as the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post. He holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University. Follow Ed on Twitter @edjmoya ‏

Ed Moya

Ed Moya

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