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Quiet end to the week
It may be a relatively quiet end to the week as traders digest the last two days of Powell’s testimony and US data and weigh up the prospects for interest rates this year.
Source – Thomson Reuters Eikon
Powell’s appearance Wednesday was extremely well received, with the Fed Chairman giving us as dovish a message as he was ever likely to. There was no attempt to discourage investors from fully pricing in a July cut so that looks as close to a certainty as you can expect to see.
Investors appear encouraged that it won’t be the last as well, with his gloomier assessment of the outlook appearing an indication of future cuts. The CPI numbers on Thursday added a layer of confusion, as weak price pressures are one of the primary factors supporting calls for cuts.
US Inflation (CPI and Core CPI)
A core annual inflation reading of 2.1% may well leave people wondering whether inflation is as lacking as Powell indicated and the Fed’s preferred PCE measure suggests.
Stocks ended the day higher on Thursday and Europe is slightly in positive territory at the open but the data yesterday did take some of the wind out of the sails.
This may put more emphasis on the PPI data today but broadly speaking it’s looking a little thin. Thankfully, Monday marks the start of earnings season so we won’t have to wait long for something to get our teeth into.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
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Based in London, England, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a Market Analyst. With more than five years’ experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while conducting macroeconomic commentary. He has been published by The Financial Times, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Telegraph, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Sky News, Bloomberg, CNBC and BBC. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and he is recognized as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
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