Brent – Stumbles after brief rebound

Traders concerned about G20 meeting?

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The oil price rebound may have already run into a little snag, with Brent running into some resistance around $64.50 on Monday.

The rebound in recent sessions had been attributed to the US/Mexico deal on the border to avoid tariffs, improved overall sentiment and suggestions from Saudi Arabia that an extension was effectively guaranteed.

The latest stumble may prove to just be some early profit taking but there is a feeling that there’s more to it. There still appears to be little idea of how much Russian involvement there’ll be in an extension and with the date of the OPEC+ meeting now looking like early July, perhaps producers are looking to make a decision with one eye on the outcome of the Trump/Xi meeting.

Brent Daily Chart

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The charts potentially support this uncertain and cagey approach, with price having fallen more than 15% in just a week between late May and early June. The recovery seen since has hardly been significant before running into resistance around $64.50, which may suggest traders are nervous about two events later this month/early next – the G20 at which Trump and Xi will discuss the breakdown in trade talks and the OPEC+ meeting.

That’s not to say we won’t climb higher here and a break above this week’s high could bring $67-68 into focus, with it being prior support and resistance. But without firm suggestions that a US/China deal or a significant cut extension is secured, I struggle to see oil traders getting too excited.

Brent 4-Hour Chart

Should we head lower then the area around $60 will be interesting, with it having run into support around here on numerous occasions since late December. Brent has struggled to hold below $63 so far though so perhaps if this can hold, it will be the trigger for another test of the lows.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Based in London, England, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a Market Analyst. With more than five years’ experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while conducting macroeconomic commentary. He has been published by The Financial Times, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Telegraph, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Sky News, Bloomberg, CNBC and BBC. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and he is recognized as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.

Craig Erlam

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