Brexit Chaos Intensifies – 13 March 2019

I suppose one should attempt to see the brilliant facet of issues for the British PM over the newest Brexit debacle. That will be that she turned the most important defeat in British parliamentary historical past into the fourth largest ever defeat when she put her withdrawal deal to the Commons final night time, progress of a form. It’s unsurprising that the deal was closely voted down once more final night time as a result of, to coin the phrase, “nothing has modified”. Regardless of having what she claimed have been legally binding adjustments associated to the contentious component of the backstop mechanism within the withdrawal settlement, her personal Legal professional Common, Geoffrey Cox, informed parliament that the UK may nonetheless stay “trapped” within the backstop which was sufficient to steer Brexit supporting MPs to affix opposition ranks and vote it down, once more.

With simply 16 days to go till Brexit occurs, issues are in a large number. There’s speak that Might could have a 3rd try to cross the invoice, however that appears to be an unrealistic prospect. At the moment, MPs will vote on whether or not to permit the UK to depart the EU and not using a deal and it’s anticipated {that a} hefty majority will vote towards such an final result. Might was at pains to say that such an final result wouldn’t preclude a “no deal” exit, however would cease it for now. Parliamentarians are capable of amend the laws, in fact, so will probably be vital to see what type of phrases is lastly handed tonight.

Assuming that “no deal” is dominated out then an additional vote is to be held tomorrow to name for an extension to the discover interval below Article 50. Right here we transfer into uncharted waters. As issues stand, an extension requires the unanimous backing of the EU states and consequently, all of the UK parliament can do is to make a request. EU states have been clear that any extension should be accompanied by substantive causes though they haven’t spelled out precisely what’s required. Plainly, an additional referendum within the UK would acquire the backing of the EU, however parliament has but to endorse such a path.

The most definitely situation to an additional vote could be alongside the strains of a proposed modification (the Kyle modification) which would offer tacit backing of Might’s withdrawal deal, however on the proviso that it gained public backing in one other vote the place the selection given to the citizens is to just accept Might’s deal and go away the EU (on these phrases) or to find out to stay an EU state. This modification has but to get off the bottom, however it’s absolutely a viable various.

The UK political world is extremely risky for the time being and no one is making any agency predictions about how occasions will unfold. Extra, undoubtedly, tomorrow…